Us Election And Stock Market History

The first 2 years of a presidential term have been associated with below average returns while the last 2 years have been well above average.

Us election and stock market history. History suggests that us stock market returns are correlated with the presidential election cycle. The economy and stock market surged in president george h. The analysts saw that on average both stock equity and bond markets showed more muted performance in the year leading up to a presidential election than they did at other times.

With the 2020 election less than four months away some. But then the savings and loan crisis and gulf war struck. The s p 500 climbed 27 in 1989.

But there are some clear exceptions. A review of market data for the s p 500 going back to the 1930s revealed that certain patterns emerged over those 90 years. From 1952 through june 2020 annualized real stock market returns under democrats have been 10 6 compared with 4 8 for republicans.

The performance of the s p 500 in the three months before votes are. When it s a general election the equity market underperforms slightly explains tom hainlin national investment strategist at u s. The stock market and elections.